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Abdulrahman, A (2010) The development of a performance measurement framework for FE/HE co-location construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Abo Kanon, H (2017) The motivations, possibilities and constrains of flexible housing practices in the UK and Turkey, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Akoh, S R (2018) Risk management framework for highway construction projects in Nigeria, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructures and Society, Heriot-Watt University.
Al Saudi, I S A (2011) The impediments to the adoption of the design and build project procurement strategy in the Saudi construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Al-Sharif, F F A (2007) Financial model for private finance initiative projects applied to school buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Alasad, R (2015) Dynamic modelling of demand risk in PPP infrastructure projects: the case of toll roads, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: concession; infrastructure project; investment; payment; project success; economic development; efficiency; uncertainty; systems dynamics; public private partnership; simulation
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10399/3044
- Abstract:
Infrastructure is the main driver of prosperity and economic development. To fill the gap between increasing demand for infrastructure and supply, the role of the private financing has become increasingly critical. Concession contracts in which the investment cost is recovered via payments from the end users are the most dominant among all PPP types. Although this mechanism has been seen as an efficient way to achieve infrastructure projects in terms of realising the project on time and to budget, the demand risk faced in the operation stage has heavily limited this efficiency. Evidence has shown that shortfall in demand can seriously jeopardize the scheme’s viability. Demand is dependent on a range of interrelated, dynamic factors such as economic conditions, willingness to pay and tariff for using the facility. In addition, uncertainty is an inherent aspect of most demand-underlying factors which makes demand estimation subject to high level of uncertainty. However, this uncertainty is largely ignored by modellers and planners and single demand estimate is often used when evaluating the facility. Given the threat to the project success resulting from potential variation between predicted and actual demand, it is believed that a demand risk assessment model is essential. This research is therefore devoted to developing a system dynamics model to assess demand risk by capturing the factors affecting demand and their relationships and simulating their change over time. A system dynamics based conceptual model was developed for mapping factors affecting demand for service provided by a typical PPP concession project. The model has five Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) which include: socio-economic, public satisfaction, willingness to pay, competition and level of fee. Based on the developed conceptual model, a quantitative simulation model for assessing traffic demand in toll road projects was developed. This model has six sub-models which are: socio-economic, public satisfaction, willingness to pay, competition, toll and expansion factors sub-models. With the use of case study of M6 toll roads (UK), it was demonstrated the potential application of SD as a tool for the assessment of demand risk in toll roads. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis, as well as risk analysis using Monte Carlo approach, were conducted using the developed SD model. Univariate sensitivity analysis helps identify the significance of the demand underlying factors when they change individually. Toll was identified as the most critical factor affecting toll traffic demand followed by congestion on the alternative un-tolled facility. Multivariate sensitivity analysis showed how demand changes when several factors change. Four scenarios were developed to show the impact of change in conditions and policies on the level of traffic. Monte Carlo simulation, on the other hand, provided level of demand with a range of confidence intervals. Providing such estimates of the expected value and the confidence level offers useful information throughout their ranges and creates overall risk profiles by providing the probability of achieving a specific result. The main contribution of the research is in the development of a system dynamics model as a tool for assessing demand in PPP projects and informing decision making, which is new to the area of demand risk modelling.
Ali Amjad, A (2003) A causal path model to measure the effects of professional training upon time overruns in Saudi construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Alkhamali, K S H (2014) Leadership style, organisational culture and disputes in public construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Alotaibi, S S (2016) The international contractor's decision to invest: a strategic risk management decision model for public private partnership projects in Saudi Arabia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University.
Alshehri, A R (2016) Quality management system for building maintenance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University.
Alsulaiman, Y S (2015) Risk management in Independent Water and Power Plant (IWPP) projects in Saudi Arabia: a grounded theory study to improve effectiveness, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Alsuliman, J A (2014) Effective stakeholder engagement in variation order management at the design stage of public sector construction projects in Saudi Arabia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Arab, M Z M (2011) A function-based cost model for early cost advice on new-build schools projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment , Heriot-Watt University.
Auchterlounie, A C (2004) A new quality theory for UK private housebuilding based on definable quality principles, impression management and the control of cognitive dissonance, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Awodele, O A (2012) Framework for managing risk in privately financed market projects in Nigeria, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Azharuddin, M (2019) Integrated carbon emission management for the United Arab Emirates construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Bageis, A S O (2008) Contractors' decision to bid: development of a bid/no bid strategic decision model, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment , Heriot-Watt University.
Bausman, D C (2002) An empirical investigation of the relationship between strategic planning and performance of large construction firms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
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Carter, K (2005) ConSus: a decision support tool for the procurement of sustainable social housing, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Chan, P W (2005) An interpretivistic approach to understand the factors that affect construction labour productivity, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Connelly, J (2001) Developing guidelines for adopting an environmental orientation for construction and related organisations within the supply chain in the construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
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Didla, N R (2018) Evaluation of the impact of quality risk management on quality performance in the UAE construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University.
Elsherif, E M (2007) A decision aid model for the selection of appropriate payment and pricing systems for construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Emhemed, A E (2005) Comprehensive approach to housing legislation: with reference to housing in Libya, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Architecture, Heriot-Watt University.
Essa, R A (2008) A framework for the pre-construction evaluation of sustainable housing projects in the UK, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Fahid, S (2007) An investigation of the effectiveness of total quality management in the UK construction industry: An empirical study, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
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Kashwani, G A (2017) Enhancing the implementation of safety engineering systems in oil and gas construction projects in the UAE, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot-Watt University.
Kelly, J R (2005) Managing client value at the strategic briefing stage of construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Khalid, M S (2010) Abandoned housing development: the Malaysian experience, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
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Kurniawan, F (2013) An integrated project evaluation tool for public-private partnership projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University.
Lam, K Y (2017) The role of tacit knowledge in knowledge intensive project management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Lihakanga, R (2022) Generic wireless sensor network for dynamic monitoring of a new generation of building material, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
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Marwan, A E (2019) Integrating building information modeling to project management consultants' role and practice in UAE, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
Matshidze, L B (2021) Developing a Public Private Partnerships (PPP) framework for implementing road maintenance projects in South African rural communities, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , Heriot-Watt University.
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